For those who have heard the rumblings that real estate is back – the National Association of Realtors (NAR) had forecast a 5-percent increase in the number of home sales in 2012 – a key report released last week delivered a jolt. U.S. home prices fell in December to their lowest levels since mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
But instead of being deterred by continued weakness in the housing market, investors are seeing opportunity. The combination of low prices, predictions that the market could be close to bottoming out and a strong rental market have inspired many investors to cash in on the real estate market. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis last month concluded that all-cash purchases—most of them made by investors—comprised almost a third of all homes sold in January. Additionally, a report the same day from the NAR showed investors snapping up 23 percent of homes in January, up from 18 percent in 2011.
In the worst-hit markets, investors – and speculators – are buying even more. Absentee purchasers (most of whom are investors) made up almost 50 percent of sales in Las Vegas and about 40 percent in Phoenix last month, according DataQuick, a firm that analyzes real estate data.
The low home prices and strong rental market mean that cash-flow prospects for investors have improved. The rental market’s growth has been the mirror image of housing’s bust. As families lost homes to foreclosure and new buyers were scared to get into a shaky market, the homeownership rate dropped to 66 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, the lowest it’s been since the second quarter of 1998. That’s meant that thousands of families who were owners are now renting. As a result, the rental vacancy rate dropped from almost 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, and average rents rose 2.5 percent last year.
Those improving investment prospects have attracted the gaze of mega-financiers. GTIS Partners, a real estate buyout fund, announced in January that it will spend $1 billion by 2016 on single-family homes to manage as rentals, according to a Bloomberg Businessweek report. Also last month, two investment management companies—GI Partners and Oaktree Capital, said they’d be sinking $1 billion and $450 million into similar deals. That was all before investment oracle Warren Buffett announced that he would love to jump into real estate as only one of the world’s richest people can—by buying $17 billion worth of residential housing. Over the long term, Buffett told a CNBC interviewer, houses will even outcompete stocks if they’re purchased at low interest rates.
The declining dollar is also attracting foreign investors who think the time is right. Deals involving overseas buyers rose 14 percent between 2009 and 2011, from $36 to $41 billion, according to NAR data. A May 2011 NAR survey found that about half of the foreign buyers came from Canada, Mexico, China, Britain and India and that they tended to buy more expensive houses — $315,000 versus the overall average of $218,000. Continued weakening of the dollar likely will increase the share of foreign buyers; 80 percent of realtors surveyed said the low value of the dollar was a factor in selling to foreign clients.
But not all real estate investors are large, out-of-town speculators who swoop in to buy dozens of properties. In fact, it’s small-time investors who have had the biggest role in converting distressed foreclosures to working rental properties, according to a January white paper by the Federal Reserve. Most investors are new to the business and don’t flip properties — 64 percent have done only one deal, according to a 2011 survey by online real estate website operator Move Inc. Two-thirds of those surveyed noted that they’re investing for the long term, and half plan to hold their properties for five years or more. Most also stay local. A 2011 NAR survey found that on average, investors buy 19 miles from home.
For those who have heard the rumblings that real estate is back – the National Association of Realtors (NAR) had forecast a 5-percent increase in the number of home sales in 2012 – a key report released last week delivered a jolt. U.S. home prices fell in December to their lowest levels since the housing crisis started in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
But instead of being deterred by continued weakness in the housing market, investors are seeing opportunity. The combination of low prices, predictions that the market could be close to bottoming out and a strong rental market have inspired many investors to cash in on the real estate market. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis last month concluded that all-cash purchases—most of them made by investors—comprised almost a third of all homes sold in January. Additionally, a report the same day from the NAR showed investors snapping up 23 percent of homes in January, up from 18 percent in 2011.
In the worst-hit markets, investors – and speculators – are buying even more. Absentee purchasers (most of whom are investors) made up almost 50 percent of sales in Las Vegas and about 40 percent in Phoenix last month, according DataQuick, a firm that analyzes real estate data.
The low home prices and strong rental market mean that cash-flow prospects for investors have improved. The rental market’s growth has been the mirror image of housing’s bust. As families lost homes to foreclosure and new buyers were scared to get into a shaky market, the homeownership rate dropped to 66 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, the lowest it’s been since the second quarter of 1998. That’s meant that thousands of families who were owners are now renting. As a result, the rental vacancy rate dropped from almost 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, and average rents rose 2.5 percent last year.
Those improving investment prospects have attracted the gaze of mega-financiers. GTIS Partners, a real estate buyout fund, announced in January that it will spend $1 billion by 2016 on single-family homes to manage as rentals, according to a Bloomberg Businessweek report. Also last month, two investment management companies—GI Partners and Oaktree Capital, said they’d be sinking $1 billion and $450 million into similar deals. That was all before investment oracle Warren Buffett announced in his February 25 annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter that he would love to jump into real estate as only one of the world’s richest people can—by buying $17 billion worth of residential housing. Over the long term, Buffett told a CNBC interviewer, houses will even outcompete stocks if they’re purchased at low interest rates.
The declining dollar is also attracting foreign investors who think the time is right. Deals involving overseas buyers rose 14 percent between 2009 and 2011, from $36 to $41 billion, according to NAR data. A May 2011 NAR survey found that about half of the foreign buyers came from Canada, Mexico, China, Britain and India and that they tended to buy more expensive houses — $315,000 versus the overall average of $218,000. Continued weakening of the dollar likely will increase the share of foreign buyers; 80 percent of realtors surveyed said the low value of the dollar was a factor in selling to foreign clients.
But not all real estate investors are large, out-of-town speculators who swoop in to buy dozens of properties. In fact, it’s small-time investors who have had the biggest role in converting distressed foreclosures to working rental properties, according to a January white paper by the Federal Reserve. Most investors are new to the business and don’t flip properties — 64 percent have done only one deal, according to a 2011 survey by online real estate website operator Move Inc. Two-thirds of those surveyed noted that they’re investing for the long term, and half plan to hold their properties for five years or more. Most also stay local. A 2011 NAR survey found that on average, investors buy 19 miles from home.
That fits with Sharon Vornholt’s experience. A real estate “wholesaler” in Louisville, Ky., she buys properties for resale to investors. She mostly sees small players at showings and auctions, many of whom jumped into investing full time in the last year or so given the market’s low prices. She knows only a few bulk investors — those who have dozens to hundreds of properties. That fits with national trends: The NAR’s Walter Molony says big investors tend to buy at auctions, which make up less than 2 percent of the total real estate market.
No one seems willing to make confident predictions about real estate’s short-term prospects, given the uncertainty about how soon the glut of remaining foreclosures will work its way through the market. Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who helped develop the methodology behind the Case-Shiller Indices, told reporters on a conference call that, “We might be on the verge of a recovery, but we might not,” according to MarketWatch. But Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, is more hopeful, citing an uptick in pending home sales in January 2011 compared with the same time last year: “The trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year,” he says.
But in the longer term, investors are betting that the market will turn and that by buying cheap houses now, they’ll be well positioned when it does. “I believe investors will play a huge part in cleaning up this mess. They’re committed to taking these houses and making them into homes for people and getting neighborhoods stabilized,” says Vornholt.
That fits with Mark and Monte's experience. We have several investors buying properties for resale. We mostly see small players and many of whom jumped into investing full time in the last year or so given the market’s low prices. Those who have dozens to hundreds of properties usually buy at auctions and make up less than 2 percent of the total real estate market.
No one seems willing to make confident predictions about real estate’s short-term prospects, given the uncertainty about how soon the glut of remaining foreclosures will work its way through the market. The National Association of Realtors, is more hopeful, citing an uptick in pending home sales in January 2012 compared with the same time last year: The trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year.
But in the longer term, investors are betting that the market will turn and that by buying cheap houses now, they’ll be well positioned when it does. We believe investors will play a huge part in cleaning up the mess. They’re committed to taking these houses and making them into homes for people and getting neighborhoods stabilized.
For those who have heard the rumblings that real estate is back – the National Association of Realtors (NAR) had forecast a 5-percent increase in the number of home sales in 2012 – a key report released last week delivered a jolt. U.S. home prices fell in December to their lowest levels since the housing crisis started in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
But instead of being deterred by continued weakness in the housing market, investors are seeing opportunity. The combination of low prices, predictions that the market could be close to bottoming out and a strong rental market have inspired many investors to cash in on the real estate market. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis last month concluded that all-cash purchases—most of them made by investors—comprised almost a third of all homes sold in January. Additionally, a report the same day from the NAR showed investors snapping up 23 percent of homes in January, up from 18 percent in 2011.
In the worst-hit markets, investors – and speculators – are buying even more. Absentee purchasers (most of whom are investors) made up almost 50 percent of sales in Las Vegas and about 40 percent in Phoenix last month, according DataQuick, a firm that analyzes real estate data.
The low home prices and strong rental market mean that cash-flow prospects for investors have improved. The rental market’s growth has been the mirror image of housing’s bust. As families lost homes to foreclosure and new buyers were scared to get into a shaky market, the homeownership rate dropped to 66 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, the lowest it’s been since the second quarter of 1998. That’s meant that thousands of families who were owners are now renting. As a result, the rental vacancy rate dropped from almost 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, and average rents rose 2.5 percent last year.
Those improving investment prospects have attracted the gaze of mega-financiers. GTIS Partners, a real estate buyout fund, announced in January that it will spend $1 billion by 2016 on single-family homes to manage as rentals, according to a Bloomberg Businessweek report. Also last month, two investment management companies—GI Partners and Oaktree Capital, said they’d be sinking $1 billion and $450 million into similar deals. That was all before investment oracle Warren Buffett announced in his February 25 annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter that he would love to jump into real estate as only one of the world’s richest people can—by buying $17 billion worth of residential housing. Over the long term, Buffett told a CNBC interviewer, houses will even outcompete stocks if they’re purchased at low interest rates.
The declining dollar is also attracting foreign investors who think the time is right. Deals involving overseas buyers rose 14 percent between 2009 and 2011, from $36 to $41 billion, according to NAR data. A May 2011 NAR survey found that about half of the foreign buyers came from Canada, Mexico, China, Britain and India and that they tended to buy more expensive houses — $315,000 versus the overall average of $218,000. Continued weakening of the dollar likely will increase the share of foreign buyers; 80 percent of realtors surveyed said the low value of the dollar was a factor in selling to foreign clients.
But not all real estate investors are large, out-of-town speculators who swoop in to buy dozens of properties. In fact, it’s small-time investors who have had the biggest role in converting distressed foreclosures to working rental properties, according to a January white paper by the Federal Reserve. Most investors are new to the business and don’t flip properties — 64 percent have done only one deal, according to a 2011 survey by online real estate website operator Move Inc. Two-thirds of those surveyed noted that they’re investing for the long term, and half plan to hold their properties for five years or more. Most also stay local. A 2011 NAR survey found that on average, investors buy 19 miles from home.
That fits with Sharon Vornholt’s experience. A real estate “wholesaler” in Louisville, Ky., she buys properties for resale to investors. She mostly sees small players at showings and auctions, many of whom jumped into investing full time in the last year or so given the market’s low prices. She knows only a few bulk investors — those who have dozens to hundreds of properties. That fits with national trends: The NAR’s Walter Molony says big investors tend to buy at auctions, which make up less than 2 percent of the total real estate market.
No one seems willing to make confident predictions about real estate’s short-term prospects, given the uncertainty about how soon the glut of remaining foreclosures will work its way through the market. Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who helped develop the methodology behind the Case-Shiller Indices, told reporters on a conference call that, “We might be on the verge of a recovery, but we might not,” according to MarketWatch. But Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, is more hopeful, citing an uptick in pending home sales in January 2011 compared with the same time last year: “The trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year,” he says.
But in the longer term, investors are betting that the market will turn and that by buying cheap houses now, they’ll be well positioned when it does. “I believe investors will play a huge part in cleaning up this mess. They’re committed to taking these houses and making them into homes for people and getting neighborhoods stabilized,” says Vornholt.
The Salt Lake Board of Realtors has released its official housing statistics for this year’s first quarter. None of the findings are a surprise for the buyers and sellers currently in the market except the medium sales price declined again but there is a simple explanation with the Kearns zip code and Clearfield zip codes being the top two zip codes homes are selling in its pushing the medium price down. The biggest statistic the board doesn't tell us in this report is our available inventory levels are extremely low! Almost every showing you run into other buyers and agents looking at the same home. Supply and demand are going to start pushing values back up if more inventory doesn't hit our market!
This is what the Salt Lake Board of Realtors released today:
Single-family home sales continued to rise in the period, up 18 percent compared to the first quarter of 2011. This is the highest level of single-family homes sold in a first quarter in five years (in Q1 2007 there were 3,842 homes sold).
Also during the quarter, the median single-family home price fell 5 percent to $190,500 compared to $200,000. The peak in home prices occurred in the summer of 2007 (second quarter) at $256,000. From the peak, single-family home prices have fallen 26 percent.
While we are still seeing house-price declines, there are a number of cities showing price increases. Draper (84020) witnessed an 8 percent rise in single-family home prices with a median sales price of $325,000. Holladay (84124) home prices increased 16 percent to $290,000. Sugar House (84105) was up 6 percent at $251,500. More homes were sold in the Kearns ZIP code in the first quarter than any other ZIP code along the Wasatch Front.
Although this is great information looking at averages or general statistics will not help you determine what your homes value is. Contact us to see exactly what your neighborhood or subdivisions values are doing.
The KCM Blog today is so true! Monte and I happen to be in the middle of a transaction the seller is for sale by owner. We almost feel bad for the seller because we see the thousands of dollars they are throwing away because the price is too low and the repairs too many! Not to mention the stress they are going through because they have no clue what they have signed or agreed to! A good agent will make you or save you money!
With the housing market beginning to heat up, we are afraid some sellers may consider trying to sell their house as a For Sale By Owner (FSBO). Here is an article we ran last summer that sellers should consider. – KCM Crew
This blog prides itself on the quality of real estate information we deliver each and every day. We try to gather empirical evidence to validate the positions we take. We do not use just an anecdotal story to make a point. We also do not get caught up in the sensationalism of the moment. However, today will be different.
We can’t resist commenting on the story which recently appeared in the Wall Street Journal regarding Colby Sambrotto, the founder and former CEO of forsalebyowner.com. It seems the founding father and lifelong evangelist of the concept of selling your home without a real estate agent was forced to hire a broker to sell his home after failing at what he preaches others should do.
After failing to sell his NYC apartment on his own as a For Sale By Owner (FSBO), Sambrotto hired a broker and paid a 6% commission in order to get the job done. His personal experience helps refute some of the myths Sambrotto has been espousing for over a decade. Let’s look at two of those myths:
Myth #1 – You Will Pocket More Money Selling on Your Own
Most FSBO sites say you can save the commission by selling on your own. What happened in Sambrotto’s sale?
From the WSJ article:
“The broker, Jesse Buckler, said he told Mr. Sambrotto the apartment in the Lion’s Head building on West 19th Street near Sixth Avenue was priced too low and wasn’t drawing the right buyers.
By May, it went into contract, he said, after attracting multiple offers. It closed in the last few days for $150,000 more than the original asking price.”
Myth #2 – The Internet Alone Can Sell Your Home
Many have said that, with the introduction of home search on the internet, hiring an agent is no longer a necessity. What happened to the FSBO guru when he attempted to only depend on the internet?
From the WSJ article:
“Looking to move his family to the suburbs, [Mr. Sambrotto] said he carefully staged his apartment for sale himself, and put it on the market. But after using a mix of websites to publicize his apartment, he said he had only ‘middling success’ and switched to a broker because many buyers were so reliant on brokers.”
Bottom Line
There is a reason the real estate industry has been around for centuries: it performs a valuable service.
I learned a long time ago that “common sense is NOT common practice“. This is especially the case during the emotional time that surrounds buying a home, when people tend to do some non-commonsensical things. Here are a few that I’ve seen over the years that have delayed (and even killed) deals:
Don’t deposit cash into your bank accounts. Lenders need to source your money and cash is not really traceable. Small, explainable deposits are fine, but getting $10,000 from your parents as a gift in cash is not. Discuss the proper way to track your assets with your loan officer.
Don’t make any large purchaseslike a new car or a bunch of new furniture. New debt comes with it, including new monthly obligations. New obligations create new qualifications. People with new debt have higher ratios…higher ratios make for riskier loans…and sometimes qualified borrowers are no longer qualifying.
Don’t co-sign other loans for anyone. When you co-sign, you are obligated. With that obligation comes higher ratios, as well. Even if you swear you won’t be making the payments, the lender will be counting the payment against you.
Don’t change bank accounts. Remember, lenders need to source and track assets. That task is significantly easier when there is a consistency of accounts. Frankly, before you even transfer money between accounts, talk to your loan officer.
Don’t apply for new credit. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a new credit card or a new car, when you have your credit report run by organizations in multiple financial channels (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.), your FICO score will be affected. Lower credit scores can determine your interest rate and maybe even your eligibility for approval.
Don’t close any credit accounts. Many clients have erroneously believed that having less available credit makes them less risky and more approvable. Wrong. A major component of your score is your length and depth credit history (as opposed to just your payment history) and your total usage of credit as a percentage of available credit. Closing accounts has a negative impact on both those determinants of your score.
The best advice is to fully disclose and discuss your plans with your loan officer before you do anything financial in nature. Any blip in income, assets, or credit should be reviewed and executed in a way to keep your application in the most positive light.
This is another great blog from KCM today. I honestly called two of my tenants today to ask them to resign leases guess what happed to rent... I love it!
Posted: 11 Apr 2012 04:00 AM We reported Fannie Mae’s QuarterlyNational Housing Survey every ninety days. Fannie Mae also does a monthly survey covering different aspects of the housing market.PDTWe
Here are some record numbers we found interesting in Fannie Mae’s March report (emphasis added).
Thirty-three percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, the highest level over the past 12 months.
The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy rose to 73 percent, the highest level in over a year.
Forty-eight percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, the highest number recorded to date.
On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 4.1 percent over the next 12 months, the highest number recorded to date.
Doug Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae, capped the report off by stating:
“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes. Americans’ rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month. With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that homeownership is a more compelling housing choice.”
